Construction of surveillance and early-warning-index-system on tuberculosis in China / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To establish the surveillance and warning index system corresponnding with the epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis,in China.Methods Literature review and expert meeting were conducted to formulate the preliminary index system frame.Delphi method was used for screening the index and determining the weight of each index.Results Two-round Delphi consultations were performed.The activity coefficients were 87.0％,90.0％ respectively,with means of authority coefficient as 0.850 ± 0.055 and 0.917 ± 0.017,respectively.Mean scores of the index were 7.063 ± 1.435,8.156 ± 0.611 respectively,with the means of coefficient of variation as 0.352 ±0.161 and 0.170 ± 0.057 respectively.The harmony coefficients were 0.322 (x2=499.472,P＜0.05)and 0.393 (x2=241.126,P＜0.05) respectively.After the two-round consultation,the tuberculosis monitoring and warning index system was developed,including 4 first-class indicators,9 second-class indicators and 48 third- class indicators.Conclusion An index system was established for tuberculosis monitoring and early warning that could provide evidence for tuberculosis prevention and control as well as for the forecasting and warning model of the disease.