Application of ARMA Model in prediction of outpatient headcount / 中华医院管理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective of the study is to explore how to apply ARIMA model in prediction of outpatients headcount,describe the modeling process,build the prediction model,and verify its applicability to serve decision making for hospital management.Methods Data originates from the outpatient statements of the HIS integrated statistics and management decision making support system.The data collection ranges from the monthly outpatients headcount from 1999 to 2005,in which the monthly data from 1999 to 2004 were used to build the time sequence model,and those of 2005 to verify the model so built.The statistic software was programmed with SPSS13.0.Results The ARIMA(1,0.1)(0,1,1)12 model was built by megns of model identification,parameter estimate.inspection/diagnosis,and model appraisal.This model features high fitting precision,as the relative error or outpatients headcount for the year is 6.85%,and that for the months ranges from-3.15%to-9.80%,with the actual values falling within the 95%upper and lower thresholds of the prediction results.Conclusion This study proves that ARIMA model fits the purpose of outpatients headcount prediction.In the meantime,prediction of such headcount should also take into account such factors as the data volume,hospital environment and patient satisfaction.