Temporal and spatial distribution as well as prediction model of sexually transmitted diseases in elderly men in Shenzhen / 中华老年医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the status quo of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) of the elderly in recent years in Shenzhen, to explore the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution,and to establish prediction model of STDs of the elderly in Shenzhen. MethodsUsing the surveillance system data of STDs from 2005 to 2009 in Shenzhen city, the incidence, temporal and spatial distribution of syphilis and gonorrhea were analyzed in the elderly aged 50 years and over by SaTScan. The incidence prediction model of STDs was established by Eviews 5.0.Results (1)The incidences of the two kinds of STDs from 2005 to 2009 in Shenzhen were on the rise and on more marked increase in male than in female. The rising velocity in over-60 year age group was similar with in 50-59 year age group. The rising velocity of syphilis was faster than gonorrhea. (2)The space-time distribution analysis showed there were clusters of the STDs in elderly men in 2005 in Lianhua and Meilin districts (P = 0. 026, RR= 2.13). (3) ARIMA (0, 1,1) (0,0, 1) 12 model was a suitable forecasting model for STDs in elderly men in Shenzhen. Conclusions: