Methodological research on building prediction model of susceptible population of acute mountain sickness / 中国组织工程研究

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: There are some people in population susceptible to acute mountain sickness. Therefore, it is important to analyse, assess and integrate certain research results to build prediction system and mathematics model in order to predict those susceptible people when army goes to tableland.DATA SOURCES Computer was used to search databases such as Medline, PubMed and PML to find articles regarding prediction of people susceptible to acute mountain sickness from January 1970 to December 2002 with the search words "acute mountain sickness, susceptible population,prediction" . The language was limited to English. At the same time, Chinese Journal Full-text Database, Chinainfo and CBMdisc were searched to find articles from January 1970 to August 2004 by the Chinese language of "acute mountain sickness, susceptible population and prediction". The research targets are susceptible people to acute mountain sickness. At last,trace-back method was used to supplement some literature and monographs.DATA SELECTION After systematically analyzed and concluded the literature information and screened researches without conducting experiment, full text of the rest literature was searched and used as selective criteria if it could be used as prediction indicator of susceptible people to acute mountain sickness.DATA EXTRACTION Totally there were 19 prediction indicators generalized. After conducting systemic analysis, Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to the indicators, 13 were selected while the other 6 were excluded.DATA SYNTHESIS: The indicators were classified according to nervous-humoral regulation ability, oxygen capture ability of respiratory system,anti-anoxia ability of central nervous system, mental health and health service ability. Based on these, system analysis, Delphi method and AHP method were used to screen prediction indicators, establish indictor system, confirm the weighted indicators and weighted indicator system as well as standardize the prediction indicators.CONCLUSION: According to the principle of prediction model and model methods, weighted linear synthesis method was used to build the predictive mathematic model. The project of susceptible population prediction of acute mountain sickness in army when entering tableland urgently was proposed combining the health service ability of army.