Abdominal CT scan in predicting complications of acute pancreatitis / 中华普通外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate abdominal CT scan in predicting complications and mortality of acute pancreatitis patients. Methods CT imaging data of 606 AP patients from June 2010 to October 2011 were analyzed retrospectively. Fatty liver, pleural effusion, suprahepatic space effusion, biliary tract disease,gastric bare area involvement (GBAI),adrenal gland involvement (AGI) and perirenal space involvement (PSI) were evaluated,and the relationship between CT findings and complications and mortality was analyzed. Results (1) The Logistic regression analysis showed six risk factors for complications of AP,including obesity,fatty liver,PSI,AGI,GBAI and suprahepatic space effusion.The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of Logistic regression model for predicting complications were 81.3％,89.1％ and 85.3 ％,respectively. (2) The Logistic regression analysis showed four risk factors for mortality of AP,including obesity,AGI,GBA and suprahepatic space effusion.The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy of Logistic regression model for predicting mortality were 33.3％, 98.6％, 96.0％, respectively.Conclusions Abdominal CT scan effectively indicates the signs of tissue and organ involvement in AP.These CT findings relate with the prognosis of AP.