A clinical model to estimate risk factor of early BPF after pneumonectomy for NSCLC / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate prognostic factors for early bronchopleural fistula after pneumonectomy with non small cell lung cancer,and establish a validated clinical model to estimate the risk of early-BPF.Methods We reviewed the medical records of 429 patients who underwent pneumonectomy for NSCLC at our institution.We used univariate and multivariate analysis to identify potential independent risk factors for early-BPF after pneumonectomy for NSCLC.A model to estimate risk of early-BPF was developed by combining independent risk factors.Results The rate of early-BPF after pneumonectomy for NSCLC was 6.5％ (28/429).Three factors were independently associated with early-BPF:neoadjuvant therapy (HR:2.406),bleeding (HR:2.171)and diabetes (HR:1.144).A scoring system for early-BPF was developed by assigning 2 points for each major risk factor (neoadjuvant therapy and bleeding) and 1 point for each minor risk factor(diabetes).Scores were grouped as low (0-1),intermediate (2-3),and high (3),yielding the rate of early-BPF was 14％,27％,and 43％,respectively.Conclusion This clinical model is established on the basis of independent risk factors.This model can be used as a predictive tool for early-BPF after pneumonectomy for NSCLC.