The study of prospective space-time scan analysis for disease early warning in health emergency command and decision-making syste / 重庆医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the feasibility of using the prospective space-time analysis and early warning in health emer-gency command system in Chongqing .Methods Prospective space-time scan analysis method was used for the early detection of disease outbreaks in mumps patients from 5 districts(Jiangbei ,Shapingba ,Dadukou ,Jiulongpo ,Nan′an ,) in Chongqing in 2006 ,then verified the aggregation using the actual reported mumps outbreaks .Results The results showed that 3 early warning signals at October 9th ,November 13th ,December 4th ,involving a total of 5 locations(streets/towns) .The strongest warning happened on Oc-tober 9th in Zengjia town of Shapingba district ,and Jingfeng town of Jiulongpo district ,the recurrence interval was 1 916 495 550 992 471 years .There were 2 mumps outbreaks have been reported in the surveyed areas .Both the the 2 outbreaks were detected by the prospective space-time scan statistic 5-6 days early than the actually occurred time .Conclusion The prospective space-time scan analysis method could be applied to the disease monitoring and early warning in health emergency command decision-making system in Chongqing .