Analysis of the Total Health Expenditure in China Based on the State Space Model / 中国卫生经济

ABSTRACT

Objective: To predict the growth trend of total health expenditure in China based on the dynamic relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth. Methods: First, analyze the relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth from 1978 to 2011 with the state space model, evaluate the accuracy of the model and predict total health expenditure range from 2012 to 2016 with the status space mode. Results: Up to 2016, the total health expenditure would reach to 5.681 trillion yuan, and the ratio of the expenditure to gross domestic product(GDP) would increase to 5.692%. Conclusion: It is needed to balance the relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth.