Effects of selective two-child policy:A multi-level theoretical analysis / 中国卫生政策研究

ABSTRACT

With the implementation of the selective two-child policy ( if one side of the partners is a single child, the couple is allowed to have a second child) across provinces, the consequences of the new policy have drawn a great deal of attention from the community. This paper attempts to interpret policy effects from macro, household, and individual perspectives. It is argued that the macro effects on population and the size of labor pool or its increase is trivial. At the household level, however, the policy may yield effect much larger than 1+1=2. Similarly, for in-dividual women, this policy may render them to face a dilemma giving birth to another child or giving it up to a-chieve social mobility in the labor market. Although childbirth is a period event, it may, like domino, cause a series of events in the later life. Nevertheless, the consequences of the new policy for children are largely positive by allevi-ating their psychological and practical burden, and facilitating the formation of a healthy personality.