Analysis The Prognostic Factors of Alopecia Areata / 대한피부과학회지

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Alopecia areata usually has a complete recovery rate in most patients, but others eventually develop the severe chronic form. Unfortunately, its course and response rates are variable and unpredictable. OBJECTIVE: To identify patient and treatment factors predictive of therapeutic success and to develop a practical model for predicting patient response. METHODS: The medical records of 189 patients with alopecia areata from 1998 to 2001 at the Department of Dermatology, Chungnam National university hospital were reviewed. Most patients were treated by corticosteroids (topical, intralesional, and systemic). RESULTS: Variables independently associated with clinically significant regrowth were the duration between initiation of therapy, baseline extent of alopecia areata. 1. Both partial response and no response (PR+NR) long duration between initiation of therapy (>3month; especially >12 months), baseline extent of alopecia areata (>25%; especially 100%- alopecia totalis and universalis) and male patients. 2. Duration between initiation of therapy Cosmetically acceptable hair regrowth was obtained in 6% of patients over 12 months, 57% with 4 to 12 months and 97% 0 to 3 months. So, it is better to start treating within 3 months; and at least within 12 months. 3. Baseline extent of alopecia areata Cosmetically acceptable hair regrowth was obtained in 27% of patients with alopecia totalis/universalis, 64% with 26 to 99%, and 94% with below 25% alopecia areata. So, it showed a good response when below 25 %, but a poor response at above 25%, specially for 100%. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that when the duration between initiation of therapy (>12 months) and the baseline extent of alopecia areata increases, the therapeutic effect decreases. A predictive model (decision tree) has been developed to assist with patient prognostication and counseling.