Study on the epiemiological patterns of HIV infection in HongKong by a mathematic model / 中国艾滋病性病

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the epidemiological patterns of HIV infection prevalent in HongKong.Method The epidemiological patterns of HIV infection in HongKong were analyzed with a mathematic model SI by changing its initial condition,which was used to test the related data.Results The changeable patterns of susceptible accumulative numbers of HIV infection in HongKong and the epidemiological curves and the curve of infection velocity were obtained.Conclusion The epidemic pattern of HIV infection in Hongkong and local infection velocity from 1987 to 2004 were well described using the epidemic model SI.An accumulation of 2 733 cases of HIV infection will be predicted in the year of 2005.The epidemic peak occurred in 2002 to 2004 and the overall HIV epidemic will last for 50 years approximately.