Application of ARIMA model to forecasting bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan City / 重庆医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the feasibility of the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model to forcast the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan ,and to provide scientific references for prevention and control .Methods SAS 9 .2 software was used to fit the ARIMA model for the monthly incidence rate of bacil‐lary dysentery from 2005 to 2013 .Thereafter ,the fitted model was used to forecast the data from January to June in 2014 ,and was evaluated by comparing the actual incidence .Results The ARIMA(0 ,1 ,1)X(0 ,1 ,1)12 model had a better fitted effect ,it was pre‐dicted that the incidence of bacillary dysentery of Jianghan District of Wuhan City from January to June 2014 would increase slight‐ly ,and the forecast data of bacillary dysentery from January 2005 to December 2013 consisted with the actual situation .Conclusion ARIM A model can be used as short‐term forecasting model to predict the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan .