Establishment of the new risk model for prediction of type 2 diabetes / 中华检验医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To develop a new risk model for predicting type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a rural Chinese population in north China.Methods A village-based cohort study was performed.Data from Handan Eye Study conducted from 2006-2013 comprising 4 132 participants aged 30 years old (1 793 male and 2 339 female) with complete diabetes data at baseline and follow-up were analyzed.The blood biomarkers of T2D incident risk were screened and a new risk model was derived by using unconditional stepwise logistic regression after adjustment of age,body mass index (BMI),waist circumference,and family history of diabetes in random two-thirds of the sample cohort (selected randomly).In addition,a simple point system for T2D risk was built according to the procedures as described in Framingham Study,and the new risk score was subsequently validated in the final one-third of the sample cohort.Results The new risk score included age (8 points),BMI (6 points),waist circumference (8 points),family history of diabetes (9 points),fasting plasma glucose (23 points),and triglycerides (4 points).The score ranged from 0 to 58.The AUC was 0.802 (0.780-0.822) in the validation sample.At the optimal cutoff value of 27,the sensitivity and specificity were 70.27％ (58.50％-80.30％) and 80.83％ (78.60％-82.90％) respectively.Conclusions A new risk model for predicting T2D have been developed in a rural Chinese population in north China,and the risk score can be used in rural basic health care settings after validation.