Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts long-term recurrence risk of acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the predictive value of early neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio(NLR) in peripheral blood for long-term recurrence of ischemic stroke. Methods Patients w ith first-ever acute ischemic stroke w ere enrolled prospectively. The demographics and baseline clinical data of the patients at admission w ere documented and NLR w as calculated. According to the results of 2-year follow-up, they w ere divided into the recurrence group and the non-recurrence group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis w as used to identify the independent risk factors for stroke recurrence and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve w as used to evaluate the predictive value of baseline NLR level for recurrent risk of ischemic stroke. Results A total of 395 patients w ith acute ischemic stroke w ere enrolled, 76 patients had recurrence (19.2%) during the follow-up period. Univariate analysis show ed that there w ere significant differences in age,smoking,hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, homocysteine, NLR, and discontinuation of statins betw een the recurrence group and the non-recurrence group (all P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis show ed that the baseline NLR level w as an independent risk factor for the recurrence of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio 1.087,95% confidence interval 1.025-1.363; P=0.021). ROC curve analysis show ed that w hen the baseline NLR cutoff value w as 3.61,the area under ROC curve w as 0.756 (95%confidence interval 0.692-0.821).The sensitivity and specificity of predicting recurrence in patients w ith ischemic stroke w ere 73.7% and 73.0%, respectively. Conclusion The higher baseline NLR has a certain predictive value for recurrence of ischemic stroke.