Predictive Value of Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na and iMELD Score in Assessing 3-Month and 1-Year Survival Rates in Patients With Hepatitis B Cirrhosis / 胃肠病学

ABSTRACT

Background:The evaluation system for predicting prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis includes Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and its derivative system,which provides important guiding value for evaluating the prognosis.However,its value still needs to be verified by further clinical studies.Aims:To investigate the predictive value of Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score in assessing 3-month and 1-year survival rates in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis.Methods:A total of 236 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis from January 2012 to December 2016 at Fukang Hospital were enrolled.The 3-month and 1-year survival rates of patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis were determined,and Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score were calculated.Area under ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score for predicting 3-month and 1-year survival rates.Results:Of the 236 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis,43 died within 3 months,and 71 died within 1 year.The causes of death were upper gastrointestinal bleeding,hepatic encephalopathy,hepatorenal syndrome,spontaneous peritonitis and infection.Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score in 3-months and 1-year survival group were significantly decreased than those in death group (P ＜ 0.05 or 0.01).AUC of Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score for predicting 3-month survival were 0.791,0.818,0.853 and 0.897,respectively,and the difference among the four groups was significant (P ＜ 0.05).AUC of Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score for predicting 1-year survival were 0.772,0.832,0.861 and 0.906,respectively,and the difference among the four groups was significant (P ＜ 0.05).The accuracy of Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score for predicting 3-month and 1-year survival were 70.1％,79.8％,86.2％ and 89.3％,respectively.Conclusions:The accuracy of Child-Pugh,MELD,MELD-Na and iMELD score for assessing 3-month and 1-year survival rates of patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis is high,and is worthy to be applied in clinical practice.