Effect of low temperature on influenza based on propensity score analysis / 中国人兽共患病学报

ABSTRACT

We analyzed the trend of flu incidence in Chongqing,explored the independent influence of low temperature on the incidence of influenza and provided reference for the development of influenza prevention and control measures and strategies.Based on the epidemiological data of influenza from 2010-2015 in Chongqing and the meteorological data in the same period of time,using the temperature as the independent variable and the morbidity rate of daily flu as the dependent variable,we use the propensity value to match the balance of pressure,air flow and other confounding factors,establishing four negative binomial regression models.Confounding meteorological factors were balanced by the propensity score.The negative binomial regression model was better than the corresponding model before matching in Chi-square test,Deviance,Scale deviance,AIC and AICC.The lower the daily minimum temperature,the higher the incidence of influenza.The influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of influenza is lagging,and the use of negative binomial regression to control confounding factors before matching may underestimate the impact of temperature on the incidence of influenza.In addition,low temperature may be an important meteorological factor that leads to an increased incidence of influenza.