Trend analysis and prediction of lung cancer incidence in rural areas of Feicheng city / 中国肿瘤临床

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the trend of lung cancer incidence rate among rural residents in Feicheng city between the years 2000 and 2012,and predict the incidence rate between the years 2013 and 2018,and subsequently provide baseline data for lung can-cer control and prevention.Methods:With the cancer registration data in Feicheng rural areas,the time trend of lung cancer inci-dence rate and the annual percentage change(APC)were calculated by the Joinpoint model,while the incidence of lung cancer from 2013 to 2018 were predicted by the ARIMA(p,d,q)model.Results:A total of 3,908 new cases of lung cancer were diagnosed be-tween 2000 to 2012.The incidence rate was 40.77/105,the age-specific cancer incidence rate in the Chinese population(ASRC)and world population(ASRW)were 32.95/105 and 32.97/105,respectively.The incidence was 2.14 times higher among males than females (P<0.001).The incidence of lung cancer which apparently rose from 25.13/105to 64.92/105 with an APC value of 9.74%(P<0.001),was increasing every year.The change in the trend of lung cancer with respect to age could be divided into three segments,the incidence rate in the 0 to 59 years group showed a rapid upward trend(APC=113.38,P<0.001),which was lower in the 60 to 79 years group (APC=20.39,P<0.05)and began to decline in the 80 years or older group(APC=-21.20,P>0.05).The incidence of lung cancer was also observed to be increasing yearly from 2013 to 2018,and with an average annual growth rate of 4.92%,was predicted to reach 87.92/105 in 2018.Conclusions:The occurrence of lung cancer was closely related to population aging,unhealthy habits,and environmental risk factors.Due to the increasing aging population,the incidence of lung cancer will continue to increase.In order to formulate specif-ic strategies,the control and prevention of lung cancer must be based on its incidence features.