The establishment of Nomogram prognostic model for patients with non-metastasis renal cell carcinoma after the operation / 中华泌尿外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the prognostic factors of renal cell carcinoma and to establish a prognostic model for patients with non-metastasis renal cell carcinoma (RCC) after operation.Methods We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of patients with RCC who underwent radical or partial nephrectomy from January 2008 to December 2012,including 392 males (67.6％) and 188 females (32.4％),with an average age of 56 years(range 24-86 years).The average diameter of tumor was 4.8 cm (range 1.5-17.5 cm).The pathological slides of tumor tissue were reviewed by pathologist,and the tissue microarray (TMA) were constructed.The immunohistochemical staining of TMA were carried out.All patients were followed up the prognosis information of the overall survival (OS),cancer specific survival (CSS) and progression free survival (PFS).Based on these data,univariate and multivariate analysis and survival analysis were performed.Independent prognostic factors related to different follow-up endpoints of patients were screened out.A Nomogram prognostic model for RCC was established and verified.Internal validation were performed by boots value analysis.Results Among 580 cases,160 cases (27.6％) accepted nephron sparing surgery and 420 cases (72.4％) radical nephrectomy,included 514 cases (88.6％) of laparoscopic surgery and 66 cases (11.4％) of open surgery.There were 468 cases of clear cell carcinoma (80.7％),56 cases of papillary carcinoma (9.7％),32 cases of chromophobe cell carcinoma (5.5％),24 patients with other subtypes of cancer cells (4.1％).In pathological staging,stage Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ were 442 cases (76.2％),88 cases (15.2％),48 cases (8.3％),2 cases (0.3％),respectively.There were 424 cases (73.1％) with high expression of CA9,and 156 cases (26.9％) with low expression.The median followup was 66 (4-82) months,and 41 cases (7.1％) were lost of follow-up.For 3 and 5 years,OS,CSS and PFS were 83.4％,88.2％,72.4％ and 69.6％,73.0％,55.8％ respectively.Multivariate analysis showed that tumor pathological subtypes,tumor stage,tumor diameter and positive expression of carbonic anhydrase 9 (CA9) were independent prognostic factors associated with the survival of RCC patients.The Nomogram prognostic model was established by the above four factors.The established Nomogram prognostic model for RCC patients was verified by Harrell's consistency index,and the c-index of OS,CSS and PFS of RCC patients were 0.72 (95％ CI 0.69-0.75),0.77 (95％ CI 0.74-0.81),0.79 (95％ CI 0.76-0.83),respectively.Conclusions Tumor pathological subtypes,staging,tumor diameter and CA9 are independent risk factors for patients with non metastatic renal cell carcinoma.The established Nomogram prognostic model certified by internal validation should be tested by large samples and multicenter studies need tested.