Visual-spatial and temporal characteristics related to infectious Tuberculosis epidemics in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 2012-2015 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the spatial and temporal mode of infectious TB transmission in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (Guangxi).Methods Data related to infectious TB case (Include smear and/or culture positive patients) in Guangxi were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Reported System (NNDRS) from 2010 to 2015.Spatial-temporal analysis and prediction were performed by SaTScan 7.0.2,GeoDa 1.8.12,R program v 3.3.1 and SPSS 19.0 software,using the time series model,Moran' s I global and local spatial autocorrelation (Empirical Bayes adjustment).Kulldorff ' s space-time scan statistics displayed by R software was used to identify the temporal and spatial trend of TB.Results The total number of infectious TB cases,collected from NNDRS was 76 151,and showing a decreasing trend on annual incidence (value of Chi-square for Linear trend=3 464.53,P-value=0.000).The forecast value of TB cases in 2016 was 7 764 (4 971-10 557),with peak in March,analyzed through the Winters' multiplicative model.The Moran' s I global Statistics was greater than 0 (0.257-0.390).TB cluster seemed to have been existed for several years.The most significant hot spots seemed to be mainly located in the central and western parts of Guangxi,shown by local spatial autocorrelation statistics and the result from space-time scanning.Counties or districts that located in the east parts of Guangxi presented the low-low relation (significant cold spots).The situation of infectious TB seemed migratory.Conclusions Our data showed an annual decreasing trend of incidence on infectious TB with temporal concentration in spring and summer.Main clusters (hot spots) were found to be located in the central and western parts of Guangxi.Hopefully,our findings can provide clues to uncover the real mode of TB transmission at the molecular-biological level.