Analysis of prognostic factors and nomogram for predicting survival for patients with locally resectable esophageal cancer after preoperative chemoradiation therapy / 中华放射肿瘤学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective The SEER database was utilized to analyze the prognosis and related factors for patients with locally resectable esophageal cancer undergoing preoperative chemoradiotherapy.A nomogram for predicting survival was established to provide reference for screening patients receiving preoperative chemoradiotherapy.Methods Patients diagnosed with stage T1b-4aN0-3M0(7th version AJCC in 2010) resectable esophageal cancer receiving preoperative chemoradiotherapy between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database.The survival rate was determined by Kaplan-Meier method.The univariate analysis was performed by log-rank test.The multivariate analysis was conducted by Cox test.The nomogram for survival prediction was established by using R software.The predicting accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by C-index and calibration curve.Results A total of 1 697 eligible patients were included.Univariate analysis showed that sex,T stage,N stage and tumor differentiation were significantly associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival rate (CSS)(all P＜0.001),and age (P=0.027) was significantly correlated with OS.Multivariate analysis demonstrated that age,sex,tumor differentiation and N stage were significantly associated with OS.Sex,tumor differentiation,T stage and N stage were significantly correlated with CSS (all P＜0.05).After the prognostic factors were included into the nomogram,the C-index for 5-year OS and CSS was 0.60 and 0.61.The model for predicting survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer was established by using the same method.The C-index for the OS and CSS was 0.62 and 0.64.Conclusions Sex,clinical stage and tumor differentiation are prognostic factors of CSS in patients with locally resectable esophageal cancer undergoing preoperative chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery.The nomogram established according to the data above can provide certain reference for the selection of preoperative chemoradiotherapy combined with surgery.