Estimated Incidence and Cost Projections of Cataract Surgery in the Republic of Korea

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: We sought to predict the future incidence and health expenditures of cataract surgery in the Republic of Korea. METHODS: From 2011 to 2015, National Health Insurance claims data were used to estimate the incidence and prevalence changes of cataract surgery according to demographic characteristics (year, sex, residence, and age). Based on the above results and changes in future population distribution, we estimated the incidence of cataract surgery by 2030. Considering the cost of cataract surgery from 2011 to 2015, we also predicted future health expenditures for cataract surgery. RESULTS: A total of 2,236,107 eyes of 1,591,176 patients underwent cataract surgery from 2011 to 2015. The total number of operated eyes per year increased, from 427,729 to 492,700 (+15%), and the number of patients increased from 306,710 to 346,056 (+12%) from 2011 to 2015. The cost of cataract surgery reimbursed by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) increased from 408,307,530,900 won ($360 million) to 449,334,367,080 won ($399 million) (+9%). The future prevalence of cataract surgery was predicted to reach 562,003 in 2030 from 346,056 in 2015. The cost of cataract surgery is expected to increase from 449 billion won ($399 million) in 2015 to 641 billion won ($570 million) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Cataract surgery and medical expenses will increase due to social aging. Therefore, we need policies to secure medical resources and expand insurance indications.