Exploration of the association between meteorological factors and incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease based on the distributed lag non-linear model in Jiangyin / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jiangyin City. Methods The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the delayed and cumulative effects of meteorological factors on incidence of HFMD in Jiangyin from 2012 to 2017. Results A total of 21 791 HFMD cases were reported in Jiangyin City during 2012-2017. We observed significant correlations between the daily incidence of HFMD and daily mean temperature (rs=0.402, P<0.001), daily mean pressure (rs=-0.453, P<0.001), and daily mean relative humidity (rs=0.075, P<0.001), respectively. It was indicated that the maximum cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on the incidence of HFMD was 11 ℃ (RR=1.473, 95% CI 1.99-1.974), and the impact on the onset of HFMD was acute and hightest at the first day (RR=1.090, 95% CI 1.045-1.136). The cumulative effect on incidence of HFMD was highest at 85% daily relative humidity (RR=1.346, 95% CI 1.154-1.571), and the impact on HFMD peaked on the 6th day (RR=1.023，95% CI 1.015-1.031); The maximum cumulative effect of daily mean pressure with the incidence of HFMD was 1010.0 hpa (RR=1.221, 95% CI 1.020-1.463), but no lag effect was observed at this level. Conclusions Meteorological factors have significant impact on the incidence of HFMD in Jiangyin City, and the effects of temperature and humidity are lagged.