Spatial-temporal characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Jiangsu province, 2010-2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2017, and to provide evidence for setting up prevention and control programs of the disease.@*Methods@#Data was from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Statistics Bureau of Jiangsu province. Descriptive methods were used to illustrate the epidemiological characteristics of OID from 2010 to 2017. Global autocorrelation statistics method (Moran’s I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation of OID, annually. Kulldorff M spatiotemporal scan statistics was used to analyze the spatial-temporal clustering of OID. ArcGIS 10.0 software, SaTScan 9.4 software and Excel 2017 software were also applied.@*Results@#A total of 126 341 OID cases were found in Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2017 with an average annual incidence as 19.96/100 000. Children under five accounted for 55.08% (69 590/126 341) of the total cases. Obvious seasonal backshift with the increasing trends of the OID was noticed. There appeared four areas with high incidence of OID in the whole province, including Wuxi, Suzhou, Yancheng and Xuzhou. OID showed positive spatial autocorrelation at the county level with higher Moran’s I from 0.19 to 0.33 (P<0.01). There appeared four positive clusters, all occurred in the high incidence period of OID, including the cluster area from the intersection areas of Changzhou and Wuxi (RR=7.61, LLR=2 605.80, P<0.01), respectively.@*Conclusion@#With the increasing trends and the seasonal backshift of OID cases, pathogen surveillance programs set for those scattered children under five, in clustered regions and epidemic seasons should be strengthened.