Evaluation of the application of moving epidemic method on making influenza epidemic thresholds in the 7 climate zones in China / 中华预防医学杂志
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
; (12): 1007-1011, 2019.
Article
en Zh
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-797019
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WPRO
ABSTRACT
Objective@#We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland.@*Methods@#The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM.@*Results@#Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%).@*Conclusion@#Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.
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WPRIM
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Zh
Revista:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
Año:
2019
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Article