Prediction model of health workforce and beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression / 中南大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE@#To construct prediction model for health workforce and hospital beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression.@*METHODS@#We surveyed 16 counties in Hunan with stratified random sampling according to uniform questionnaires,and multiple linear regression analysis with 20 quotas selected by literature view was done.@*RESULTS@#Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on medical personnels in county hospitals included the counties' urban residents' income, crude death rate, medical beds, business occupancy, professional equipment value, the number of devices valued above 10 000 yuan, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, and utilization rate of hospital beds. Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on county hospital beds included the the population of aged 65 and above in the counties, disposable income of urban residents, medical personnel of medical institutions in county area, business occupancy, the total value of professional equipment, fixed assets, long-term debt, medical income, medical expenses, outpatient and emergency visits, hospital visits, actual available bed days, utilization rate of hospital beds, and length of hospitalization.@*CONCLUSION@#The prediction model shows good explanatory and fitting, and may be used for short- and mid-term forecasting.