Establishment of a prognostic nomogram for esophageal cancer liver metastasis–a population-based analysis / 中国实用内科杂志

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prognostic factors related to liver metastasis of esophageal cancer and establish an effective prediction model. METHODS: The data of 464 cases of esophageal cancer with liver metastasis from 2010 to 2015 was collected from the National Cancer Institute SEER database by SEER stat 8.3.5 software. SPSS(v25.0) was used to analyze the prognostic factors of esophageal cancer liver metastasis and Kaplan-Meier curve was used for survival analysis. We introduced the meaningful variables of single factor analysis in Cox proportional hazard model and multivariate analysis and obtained the independent influencing factors of prognosis.Independent factors were then included in the accelerated failure time model to construct the nomogram. RESULTS: The mean survival time of patients in this study was 11.6 months(95%CI 10.075-13.209), and their 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 29.4%, 5.5%, and 0,respectively. Age(HR=1.452, 95% CI 1.175-1.795), marriage(HR=0.753, 95%CI 0.611-0.927) and surgery(HR=0.428, 95% CI 0.227-0.807) were independent prognostic factors for patients. We constructed the nomogram with risk factors of prognosis, and the C-index value was 0.614. CONCLUSION: The prognosis of esophageal cancer liver metastasis is poor. being young, Being married, and surgery are associated with better survival, and the nomogram we have constructed is proved to have good predictive ability.