Trends in prostate cancer mortality in Chinese men from 1990 to 2017: an APC model analysis / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the prevalence trend of male prostate cancer mortality in China during the 25 years from 1992 to 2017. Methods The age-period-cohort (APC) model and the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect and cohort effect of prostate cancer mortality risk in Chinese men. Results The overall mortality rate of prostate cancer in Chinese men was on the rise from 1992 to 2017, with the crude mortality rate rising from 3.39‰ to 7.17‰. The results of the APC model analysis showed that the age effect of prostate cancer mortality increased with age in Chinese men after the age of 40. The period effect was generally on the rise. The cohort effect indicated that men born in China after 1980 experienced a declining risk of prostate cancer death. Conclusions The period effect of prostate cancer mortality risk was dominant in Chinese men. Changes in lifestyle and sexual attitudes, population aging, smoking, environmental pollution and other factors may be the main reasons for the increase in the period effect. The attention should be paid to improve these aspects in the prevention and treatment of prostate cancer, and at the same time the awareness rate of PSA screening should be strengthened. Comprehensive prevention with health education can help reduce overall prostate cancer mortality in men.