Epidemiology and trend forecast of newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Meishan City , 2014-2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of the newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019, and to carry out trend prediction and analysis, so as to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies. Methods Raw data of newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 were collected from Meishan Statistical Yearbook. And Excel was used to manage the raw data. The epidemiological characteristics of newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 were analyzed, and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Meishan City in the next two years was predicted by grey GM(1,1) model. Results From 2014 to 2019, a total of 1 832 smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in Meishan City. The annual average reported incidence rate of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis was 26.95/100 000. The overall incidence rate of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis showed a downward trend. Among the 1 832 newly diagnosed tuberculosis cases, the majority were male, aged 31~40 years old, spring onset, township residence and rural residence, farmers and students. The predicted incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 based on grey GM(1,1) model is basically consistent with the actual incidence, and the predicted incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2020 and 2021 are 27.68/100 000 and 30.25/100 000 respectively. Conclusion The incidence of newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis in Meishan City from 2014 to 2019 has a downward trend in general, while it may increase in the next two years, so the prevention and control measures for high-risk groups, regions and seasons should be strengthened.