Hypothesis testing of critical infection rates for early warning of malaria epidemics: A study using pooled sampling method and sporozoite rate / 第二军医大学学报

ABSTRACT

Objective: To provide a minimum sample size approach and a sequential sampling approach for testing whether the sporozoite rate has exceeded the critical level of malaria epidemics using the pool sampling method. Methods: Formulas of the expected pooled sample size and the power of tests were deduced while controlling the probability of type I and type II errors. The optimal pool sizes of the 2 approaches were given by minimizing the expected pooled sample size; computer simulation was used to verify the outcomes. Results: The optimal pool size, programming of MATLAB, and the steps of trials of the 2 approaches were given. The minimum sample size approach could be used for routine surveillance and sequential sampling approach could be used for early warning. Conclusion: The optimal pool size in the present study can obtain satisfactory testing power (type I and type II errors are both lower than 5%) and can effectively decrease the pooled sample size.