Baseline Framingham risk score does not predict future ECG‑derived QRS duration over an average of 3.3 years

ABSTRACT

Background@#Prolonged electrocardiogram (ECG) QRS duration has been associated with increased cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether the main predictor of cardiovascular risk, the Framingham risk score also predicts short-term changes in ECG QRS duration. Our aim is to determine whether baseline Framingham risk score is associated with baseline or changes in QRS duration. @*Methods@#A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was performed using observational data obtained from two hundred two participants. Framingham risk score was calculated using an online risk calculator. QRS duration was obtained using a 10 s trace from a Welch Allyn PC-based 12-lead ECG system. @*Results@#Average follow-up duration was 3.3 ± 1.1 years. Mean QRS change was 1.8 ± 11.4 ms. Specifically, among two hundred two participants, there are 104 subjects with a greater QRS duration at follow-up, while 98 subjects had the same or a shorter follow-up QRS duration. Baseline Framingham risk score did not significantly predict an increase in QRSd with an odds ratio of 1.04 (P = 0.230). Regression analysis of QRS duration at baseline and Framingham risk at baseline had a weak association (R2= 0.020;P = 0.043). The Framingham risk score at follow-up was likewise has a weak association with follow-up QRS duration (R2= 0.045; P = 0.002). @*Conclusions@#Our results do not demonstrate a statistically significant association between Framingham risk parameters and future QRS duration changes over longitudinal time. QRS duration had variable changes between baseline and follow-up. This might suggest that a longer period of follow-up is required to document more stable increases in QRS duration associated with ventricular pathology. A larger population study is needed to confirm our observations.