Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Ningbo City from 2015 to 2020 / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To investigate the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Ningbo City from 2015 to 2020, so as to provide insights into tuberculosis control.@*Methods@#The data of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Ningbo City from 2015 to 2020 were collected from Tuberculosis Management Information System of China Disease Control and Prevention Information System, and were linked with the geographic information database of Ningbo Planning Design and Research Institute. The software SaTScan version 10.3 was employed for monthly spatio-temporal scanning and cluster analysis of reported pulmonary tuberculosis cases, populations, longitude and latitude in 153 townships of Ningbo City from 2015 to 2020. @*Results@#There were one class Ⅰ cluster and two class Ⅱ clusters of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Ningbo City from 2015 to 2020, and the class Ⅰ cluster was centered in Song'ao Township and covered 37 townships, with aggregation time from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017, while class Ⅱ clusters were covered 38 tounships which were centered in Sanqishi Township of Yuyao County, and one township in Hangzhou Bay New Town. The aggregation time was from January to June in 2015 and 2016, from March to August between 2017 and 2019 and between May and October, 2020. The overall reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis appeared a tendency towards a decline in each township of Ningbo City from 2015 to 2020; however, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was more than 80 per 100 thousand in Fuming Township of Yinzhou District and Juexi Township of Xiangshan County in 2020.@*Conclusions@#There were significant spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence at a township level in Ningbo City from 2015 to 2020, and the clusters were mainly concentrated in the central and eastern Ningbo City. The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is high in Fuming Township of Yinzhou District and Juexi Township of Xiangshan County, where targeted regional tuberculosis control strategies should be implemented.