A cohort study on the correlation between fasting plasma glucose trajectories and new-onset carotid plaque / 中华健康管理学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the correlation between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and new-onset carotid plaque through latent class trajectory models.Methods:A total of 953 observation objects came from the first affiliated hospital of Zhengzhou University in accordance with the inclusion criteria. According to the FPG values of the observed subjects during the annual physical examination from January 2017 to December 2019, the following four different FPG trajectories groups were determined by latent class trajectory modelling tools the low-stable group, the medium stable group, the medium-high stable group, and the high stable group. Carotid plaque incidence in each group was followed up in 2020 to compare the differences of the cumulative incidences of the four groups. The Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the correlation between different FPG trajectories and new-onset carotid plaque.Results:The incidence of carotid plaque increased with the increase of FPG trajectories by 11.13%, 19.70%, 23.44%, 23.81%, respectively, with significance ( P<0.001). After adjusting gender, age, BMI and other confounding factors with the cox proportional risk regression model, the risk of carotid plaque in the FPG medium stable group, medium and high stable group, high-stable group was still 1.895 (95% CI 1.296-2.769), 2.273 (95% CI 1.241-4.161), 2.527 (95% CI 1.219-5.241) times of the low stable group (all P<0.05). Conclusion:The long-term high FPG levels are independent risk factors for the incidence of carotid plaque, and controlling FPG at a low level steadily can reduce the risk of carotid plaque.