Comparison between Liaoning scoring system and three other non-invasive scoring systems in the prediction of high-risk esophageal varices and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage in patients with liver cirrhosis / 中华消化内镜杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To compare the value of Liaoning scoring system, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease-Na (MELD-Na) and Blatchford score in predicting high-risk esophageal varices (EVs), hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year and blood transfusion treatment in cirrhotic patients.Methods:Clinical data of 170 patients with esophageal varices confirmed by endoscopy from January 2018 to September 2019 were recorded. Liaoning score, MELD, MELD-Na score and Blatchford score were calculated when the first endoscopy was performed. These patients were followed up, and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year was recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn and the area under curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of 4 scoring systems in predicting high-risk EVs, hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year after the first endoscopy and blood transfusion. Cut-off values were obtained, and groups divided by cut-off values were compared for the proportion of high-risk EVs and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage.Results:The cut-off value of high-risk EVs in patients with cirrhosis predicted by Liaoning score was 0.45, and the AUC was 0.702 (95% CI0.612-0.781, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score (AUC were 0.593, 0.648, 0.610, respectively). The proportion of high-risk EVs in Liaoning score ≥0.45 and <0.45 were 71.8% (89/124) and 34.8% (16/46) with significant differences ( χ2=19.442, P<0.01). The AUC of Liaoning score for predicting hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year was 0.680 (95% CI 0.595-0.765, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score (AUC were 0.605,0.615,0.598, respectively). AUC of Blatchford score for predicting blood transfusion was 0.775 (95% CI0.687-0.863, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Liaoning score (AUC were 0.653, 0.719, 0.631, respectively). Conclusion:Liaoning score can predict high-risk EVs, hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year after the first endoscopy in patients with cirrhosis and is superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score. Blatchford score can effectively predict whether cirrhosis patients with EVs need blood transfusion.