Study on the causes of drug shortage in Shanxi province and the construction of forewarning model / 中华医院管理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To construct the forewarning model of drug shortage in Shanxi province, so as to realize the early prediction of drug shortage.Methods:According to the drug shortage of data of each monitoring station in Shanxi province, from the four dimensions of drug factors, policy attributes, supplier factors and demander factors, 14 factors were selected for grey correlation analysis, for example whether they were urgent drugs for women and children, shortage types, etc. The main factors affecting the degree of drug shortage were selected, and the early warning analysis model based on two-step cluster analysis method was established.Results:A total of six factors with the highest correlation with the degree of drug shortage were determined in this study, in order whether they were urgent drugs for women and children, shortage types, low-price drugs, the number of moving annual total monitoring enterprises in sale in the current month, shortage reasons, and whether they were basic drugs. Based on the two-step cluster analysis, a model of drug shortage forewarning in Shanxi Province was established, which was divided into four optimal clusters and the warning level was determined.Conclusions:This study establishes the early warning model of drug shortage in Shanxi province, which is helpful to find the risk of drug shortage as soon as possible, objectively predict the risk level, and assist the drug regulatory department to realize layered implementation and collaborative response.