Spatial clustering and dynamic change of mumps in Hubei Province in 2010-2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore spatial clustering of mumps in Hubei Province during 2010-2020, and to provide evidence for mumps prevention and control. Methods The surveillance data of mumps during 2010-2020 in Hubei Province was obtained from the national infectious diseases reporting information system. Trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis of mumps incidences at county/district levels were performed using ArcGIS10.5 software. Results Mumps incidence rates in Hubei Province during 2010-2018 ranged from 8.70 per 100 000 to 44.99 per 100 000. The trend surface analysis showed that mumps incidences gradually decreased from west to east, and was low in the middle and high at the north-south direction. Global spatial autocorrelation showed that there were positive spatial correlations in every year except 2012 and 2014 (Morans I> 0, P <0.05). Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the hotspots of mumps incidences varied every year from 2010 to 2020. Conclusions According to the spatial analysis, mumps incidences had obvious spatial clustering in Hubei Province. The hotspots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern region of Hubei, but the hot spots also extended to the urban areas of eastern, central and northern Hubei. It is necessary to take appropriate prevention and control measures in the high-incidence areas.