Predictive value of six critical illness scores for 28-day death risk in comprehensive and specialized intensive care unit patients based on MIMIC-Ⅳ database / 中华危重病急救医学

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the basic characteristics of various types of intensive care unit (ICU) patients and the predictive value of six common disease severity scores in critically ill patients on the first day on the 28-day death risk.Methods:The general information, disease severity scores [acute physiology score Ⅲ (APSⅢ), Oxford acute disease severity (OASIS) score, Logistic organ dysfunction score (LODS), simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ (SAPSⅡ), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score], prognosis and other indicators of critically ill patients admitted from 2008 to 2019 were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ 2.0 (MIMIC-Ⅳ 2.0). The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) of six critical illness scores for 28-day death risk of patients in various ICU, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated, the optimal Youden index was used to determine the cut-off value, and the AUC of various ICU was verified by Delong method.Results:A total of 53 150 critically ill patients were enrolled, with medical ICU (MICU) accounted for the most (19.25%, n = 10 233), followed by cardiac vascular ICU (CVICU) with 17.78% ( n = 9 450), and neurological ICU (NICU) accounted for the least (6.25%, n = 3 320). The patients in coronary care unit (CCU) were the oldest [years old: 71.79 (60.27, 82.33)]. The length of ICU stay in NICU was the longest [days: 2.84 (1.51, 5.49)] and accounted for the highest proportion of total length of hospital stay [63.51% (34.61%, 97.07%)]. The patients in comprehensive ICU had the shortest length of ICU stay [days: 1.75 (0.99, 3.05)]. The patients in CVICU had the lowest proportion of length of ICU stay to total length of hospital stay [27.69% (18.68%, 45.18%)]. The six scores within the first day of ICU admission in NICU patients were lower than those in the other ICU, while APSⅢ, LODS, OASIS, and SOFA scores in MICU patients were higher than those in the other ICU. SAPⅡ and SIRS scores were both the highest in CVICU, respectively. In terms of prognosis, MICU patients had the highest 28-day mortality (14.14%, 1 447/10 233), while CVICU patients had the lowest (2.88%, 272/9 450). ROC curve analysis of the predictive value of each score on the 28-day death risk of various ICU patients showed that, the predictive value of APSⅢ, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in comprehensive ICU were higher [AUC and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were 0.84 (0.83-0.85), 0.82 (0.81-0.84), and 0.83 (0.82-0.84), respectively]. The predictive value of OASIS, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in surgical ICU (SICU) were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.80 (0.79-0.82), 0.79 (0.78-0.81), and 0.79 (0.77-0.80), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ and SAPSⅡ in MICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.84 (0.82-0.85) and 0.82 (0.81-0.83), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ and SAPSⅡ in CCU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.86 (0.85-0.88) and 0.85 (0.83-0.86), respectively]. The predictive value of LODS and SAPSⅡ in trauma ICU (TICU) were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.83 (0.82-0.83) and 0.83 (0.82-0.84), respectively]. The predictive value of OASIS and SAPSⅡ in NICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.83 (0.80-0.85) and 0.81 (0.78-0.83), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in CVICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.84 (0.83-0.85), 0.81 (0.80-0.82), and 0.78 (0.77-0.78), respectively]. Conclusions:For the patients in comprehensive ICU, MICU, CCU, and CVICU, APSⅢ or SAPSⅡ can be applied for predicting 28-day death risk. For the patients in SICU and NICU, OASIS or SAPSⅡ can be applied to predict 28-day death risk. For the patients in TICU, SAPSⅡ or LODS can be applied for predicting 28-day death risk. For CVICU patients, APSⅢ or LODS can be applied to predict 28-day death risk.