Long-term trend of survival rate of malignant tumors in the elderly over sixty years old / 中华老年医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the survival rate of malignant tumor in the elderly over 60 years old in Qidong city from 1972 to 2016, and to provide basis for prognosis evaluation and prevention.Methods:Based on the data of 66 386 patients with malignant tumor in the elderly over 60 years old in the Qidong cancer registration and reporting system, the survival outcome was tracked by the method of active follow-up and passive follow-up.All of these data were then analyzed by stratification of sex, age, tumor site and hospital level.Results:During the period of 1972 to 2016, the total number of patients with malignant tumors in the elderly were 66 386 cases, accounting for 56.66% of patients in all age groups.The observed survival rate(OSR)of 5 and 10 years were 14.52% and 9.53% and relative survival rate(RSR)of 5 and 10 years were 19.76% and 18.92%, respectively, in the elderly in Qidong.The 5-year RSR was 16.98% for males and 23.91% for females, being a statistically significant( χ2=339.83, P<0.001). The 5-year RSRs of elderly patients in males and females increased from 7.53% and 15.83% in 1972-1976 to 28.06% and 39.01% in 2012-2016, respectively.The 5-year RSR of 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84 and 85 years old and over were 22.84%, 20.53%, 17.74%, 18.30%, 18.02% and 14.06%, respectively, with a statistically significant difference( χ2=694.27, P<0.001). Among the top 10 major malignancies, the ranks of 5-year RSR from high to low were breast cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, colorectal cancer, malignant lymphoma, gastric cancer, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer, respectively.A comparison between 2002--2016 and 1972--1986 showed that the increased rank of absolute values of RSR from highest to lowest were prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer, bladder cancer, gastric cancer, malignant lymphoma, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer, respectively.The 5-year RSR of patients diagnosed in the district / township hospitals, county hospitals, city-level 3A hospitals and provincial-level 3A hospitals were 13.97%, 23.71%, 26.12% and 28.55%, respectively, with a statistically significant difference( χ2=841.93, P<0.001). In the 45 years, the average annual percentage change(AAPC)ratio of 5-year OSR was 3.88%( t=6.75, P<0.001), and the 5-year RSR was 3.69%( t=7.44, P=0.001); the AAPC of the 5-year RSR was 3.91%( t=9.66, P<0.001)in males and 3.42%( t=6.08, P=0.001)in females.The AAPC ratio of 5-year RSR in each age group were 4.08% for 60-64 years, 4.18% for 65-69 years, 3.91% for 70-74 years, 3.12% for 75-79 years, 3.81% for 80-84 years, 0.51% for 85 years old and over, respectively.Except for age group of 85 years old and over( P=0.615), significant rising trends were observed in all age groups( P<0.01). Conclusions:Malignant tumors in the elderly have become the major cancer burden in Qidong, and there are significant gender and age differences.The overall survival rate in elderly patients with malignant tumors has been significantly improved in the past 45 years, which may be related to the improvement in the level of diagnosis and treatment and the service capacity of hospitals.