Value of platelet count and related scoring models in predicting the prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the association between platelet count (PLT) and the prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), to establish a new PLT-related scoring model, and to assess its value in predicting the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted among the patients with HBV-ACLF who were hospitalized and treated in Department of Gastroenterology, The General Hospital of Western Theater Command, from January 2018 to January 2022. Clinical data within 24 hours after admission were collected from all patients, and according to the survival after 180 days of follow-up, the patients were divided into survival group and death group. The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to investigate the correlation between different indicators, and the logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors for prognosis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive value of the prognostic model, and the Kaplan-Meier curve analysis was used to investigate the survival condition of the high AIP group and the low AIP group. Results A total of 236 patients were enrolled, with a 180-day survival rate of 75.85% (179/236). Compared with the survival group, the death group had significantly higher age (53.98±10.45 vs 47.44±12.46, P =0.001), international normalized ratio (INR) [1.78 (1.46-2.04) vs 1.47 (1.23-1.68), P < 0.001], total bilirubin [275.60 (165.00-451.45) vs 230.60 (154.90-323.70), P =0.035], Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score [21.47 (18.14-24.76) vs 18.67 (15.70-21.62), P < 0.001], and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score [-1.06 (-1.64~-0.86) vs-1.32 (-1.73~-1.01), P =0.034], as well as significantly lower PLT [80.00 (50.00~124.50) vs 115.00 (82.00~143.00), P =0.001] and platelet-to-white blood cell ratio (PWR) [13.40 (9.54~20.70) vs 18.49 (13.95~24.74), P =0.001]. The Pearson correlation analysis showed that PLT was negatively correlated with liver cirrhosis and INR ( r =-0.332 and -0.194, P < 0.001 and P =0.003). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [ OR ]=1.045, 95% confidence interval [ CI ] 1.015-1.076), PLT ( OR =0.990, 95% CI 0.983-0.998), and INR ( OR =2.591, 95% CI 1.363-4.925) were independent risk factors for the 180-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. The new predictive model was established as follows AIP=0.006×age+0.187×INR-0.001×PLT. The AIP scoring model had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.718 in predicting the 180-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients, with a sensitivity of 81.1% and a specificity of 54.1%, while PLT, PWR, LPACLF score, MELD score, and ALBI score had an AUC of 0.673, 0.659, 0.588, 0.647, and 0.578, respectively. The AIP scoring model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.48. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the high AIP group had a significantly lower survival rate than the low AIP group ( P < 0.001). Conclusion The PLT-related scoring model has a better value than other models in predicting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF, and HBV-ACLF patients with a relatively high PLT level tend to have a high overall survival rate.