Analysis on survival time and influencing factors among reported HIV/AIDS in Yunnan Province, 1989-2021 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the survival time of reported HIV/AIDS and influencing factors of Yunnan Province from 1989 to 2021. Methods: The data were extracted from the Chinese HIV/AIDS comprehensive response information management system. The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The life table method was applied to calculate the survival probability. Kaplan-Meier was used to draw survival curves in different situations. Furthermore, the Cox proportion hazard regression model was constructed to identify the factors related to survival time. Results: Of the 174 510 HIV/AIDS, the all-cause mortality density was 4.23 per 100 person-years, the median survival time was 20.00 (95%CI19.52-20.48) years, and the cumulative survival rates in 1, 10, 20, and 30 years were 90.75%, 67.50%, 47.93% and 30.85%. Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model results showed that the risk of death among 0-14 and 15-49 years old groups were 0.44 (95%CI 0.34-0.56) times and 0.51 (95%CI0.50-0.52) times of ≥50 years old groups. The risk for death among the first CD4+T lymphocytes counts (CD4) counts levels of 200-349 cells/μl, 350-500 cells/μl and ≥501 cells/μl groups were 0.52 (95%CI 0.50-0.53) times, 0.41 (95%CI 0.40-0.42) times and 0.35 (95%CI 0.34-0.36) times of 0-199 cells/μl groups. The risk of death among the cases that have not received antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 11.56 (95%CI 11.26-11.87) times. The risk for death among the cases losing to ART, stopping to ART, both losing and stopping ART was 1.66 (95%CI1.61-1.72) times, 2.49 (95%CI2.39-2.60) times, and 1.65 (95%CI1.53-1.78) times of the cases on ART. Conclusions: The influencing factors for the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases were age at diagnosis in Yunnan province from 1989 to 2021. The first CD4 counts levels, antiretroviral therapy, and ART compliance. Early diagnosis, early antiretroviral therapy, and increasing ART compliance could extend the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases.