A review on cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in the elderly / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Risk prediction models play an important role in the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the elderly population. There are fifteen papers about CVD risk prediction models developed for the elderly domestically and internationally, of which the definitions of disease outcome vary widely. Ten models were reported with insufficient information about study methods or results. Ten models were at high risk of bias. Thirteen models presented moderate discrimination in internal validation, and only four models have undertaken external validation. The CVD risk prediction models for the elderly differed from those for the general population in terms of model algorithm and the effect size of association between predictor and outcome, and the prediction performance of the models for the elderly attenuated. In the future, high-quality external validation researches are necessary to provide more solid evidence. Different ways, including adding new predictors, using competing risk model algorithms, machine learning methods, or joint models, and altering the prediction time horizon, should be explored to optimize the current models.