Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for detect the risk of anemia after chemotherapy for the triple-negative breast cancer patients with Fukangning / 国际中医中药杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the risk factors analysis and validation of anemia after triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and risk prediction model, to provide reference for reducing the incidence of anemia after TNBC-NAC.Methods:Retrospectively, 316 female TNBC-NAC patients in the breast department of our hospital from January 2016 to July 2021 were selected as the study subjects (modeling set), and the condition of anemia after the last chemotherapy was set as the observation group. In addition, 98 breast cancer patients in 2022 were selected for validation. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of Fukangning capsule on TNBC-NAC anemia. We established the risk nomogram prediction model and calibration curve of anemia after chemotherapy by using R software and conducted internal and external verification. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the prediction deviation between the risk prediction value of the nomogram model and the actual observed value, and the ROC curve was used to evaluate the prediction effect of the model.Results:A total of 75 (23.73%) among 316 patients developed anemia. The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that menopause [ OR (95% CI)=26.739 (5.063-141.227)], RBC [ OR (95% CI)=0.168 (0.098-0.286)], Hb level [ OR (95% CI)=0.952 (0.929-0.976)], and pathological stage Ⅲ[ OR (95% CI)=4.182 (1.759-9.946)] were independent risk factors for anemia after TNBC-NAC ( P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model established based on the above factors. Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed that the difference between the risk prediction value and the actual observed value is ( χ2=3.68, P=0.885). The correction curve approaches to the ideal curve and the average absolute error was 0.012. The area under the ROC curve was 0.945, 95% CI was 0.918-0.972, sensitivity was 0.921 and specificity was 0.853, suggesting that the model has good differentiation and calibration degree. The external validation results showed that the nomogram predicted anemia with sensitivity of 88.7%, spectificity of 85.45% and accuracy of 86.73%. Conclusion:Menopausal status, RBC, Hb level before chemotherapy and pathological stage are independent risk factors for anemia after taking TNBC-NAC. The nomogram prediction model based on the above indicators had good discrimination and calibration, and accurately predicted the possibility of anemia after TNBC-NAC.