Construction and efficacy evaluation of a scoring system for predicting major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events within 1 year in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To establish a prediction model for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in elderly patients with emergency acute coronary syndrome (ACS) within 1 year, and to evaluate its prediction efficiency.Methods:This was a prospective cohort study. Elderly ACS patients who were admitted to the Cardiovascular Care Unit (CCU) or the Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) in Beijing Bo'Ai Hospital through emergency department from January 2019 to December 2021 were successively enrolled. General data of the patients were collected within 24 h after admission, the incidence of malignant arrhythmia, complete revascularization and acute kidney injury (AKI) during hospitalization were recorded. Within 24 h, laboratory indexes such as serum creatinine (Scr), albumin (Alb), hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), creatine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB), D-dimer, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) were measured. In addition, transthoracic echocardiography and the Frailty Screening Questionnaire (FSQ) were performed. Patients were followed up for the occurrence of MACCE within 1 year. The influencing factors of MACCE were screened by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The cut-off values of continuous variables were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and discretization was carried out with reference to clinical practice. Corresponding scores were set up according to the β regression coefficient of each variable to establish a clinical prediction score scale of MACCE. Finally, ROC curve was used to evaluate its prediction efficiency.Results:The study enrolled 322 elderly ACS patients, and the incidence of MACCE within 1 year was 24.5%. After preliminary screening of independent variables by univariable logistic regression analysis, the influencing factors of MACCE ( P<0.2) were as follows ① Continuous indicators age, body mass index (BMI), Alb, hs-CRP, D-dimer, NT-pro-BNP, ejection fraction (EF), Killip grade and FSQ score; ② Discrete indicators ≥3 comorbidities, incomplete revascularization, and AKI. Multivariable logistic regression analysis after discretization of continuous indicators showed that age ≥84 years old [odds ratio ( OR)=4.351, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.635-11.576, P=0.003], incomplete revascularization ( OR=6.580, 95% CI 2.397-18.060, P < 0.001), combined with AKI ( OR=2.647, 95% CI 1.085-6.457, P=0.032), EF ≤50% ( OR=2.742, 95% CI 1.062-7.084, P=0.037), and FSQ≥3 points ( OR=9.345, 95% CI 3.156-27.671, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for MACCE. The total score of the clinical prediction system for MACCE was 8 points, including age ≥84 years old (2 points), incomplete revascularization (2 points), FSQ ≥3 points (2 points), EF ≤50% (1 point), and combined with AKI (1 point). The area under ROC curve (AUC) of the scoring system for predicting MACCE was 0.891, (95% CI 0.844-0.938, P < 0.001). The optimal cut-off value was >3 points, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.825 and 0.792, respectively. Conclusions:The prediction score scale of MACCE has a good diagnostic efficacy and has certain guiding value for clinicians to judge the prognosis of elderly ACS patients.