Establishment of prediction model for severe acute pancreatitis complicated with abdominal hypertension / 中华胰腺病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To construct the prediction model of SAP complicated with intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH), and evaluate the prediction efficiency of the model.Methods:The clinical data of 322 SAP patients admitted to the emergency department of Cangzhou Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine in Hebei Province from January 2017 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into IAH group ( n=153) and control group ( n=169) according to whether they had IAH complications or not. The clinical characteristics and laboratory test results of the two groups were compared. Multifactor logistic step-up regression was used to analyze the risk factors of SAP patients complicated with IAH. A nomogram model for predicting SAP complicated with IAH was established by using R software. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the model was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate its prediction efficiency. Calibration chart, Hosmer-Lemesshow test and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy and clinical application value of the model. The Bootstrap method was applied to verify the model internally. Results:In IAH group, cases with body mass index, CRP, procalcitonin (PCT), WBC, acute physiological and chronic health assessmentⅡ (APACHEⅡ) score, modified CT Severity Index score (MCTSI), incidence of complications (abdominal effusion, abdominal infection, gastrointestinal dysfunction, shock, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome), mechanical ventilation, the number of high-volume fluid reactivation (24 h≥4 L) were more than those in control group; serum albumin and serum calcium in IAH group were lower than those in control group, and the differences were statistically significant (all P value <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that serum albumin ( OR=0.815, 95% CI 0.710-0.937), CRP ( OR=1.005, 95% CI 1.002-1.008), MCTSI ( OR=2.043, 95% CI 1.695-2.463), complication of gastrointestinal dysfunction ( OR=4.179, 95% CI 2.170-8.049), and high-volume fluid resuscitation ( OR=4.265, 95% CI 2.269-8.015) were independent risk factors for IAH in SAP.The Nomogram prediction model was established using the five factors above as parameters, and the AUC value for predicting IAH complication was 0.886. The Hosmer-Lemesshow test showed a high consistency between the prediction results and the actual clinical observation results ( P=0.189). The results of decision curve analysis showed that the prediction probability of the model was between 10% and 85%, which could bring more benefits to patients. Conclusions:The early prediction model of SAP with concurrent IAH is successfully established, which can better predict the risk of SAP with concurrent IAH.