Spatial distribution characteristics of Keshan disease in Shandong Province / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of Keshan disease in Shandong Province, and to provide evidence for prevention and control of Keshan disease.Methods:The incidence data of Keshan disease in Shandong Province from 1960 to 2018 were collected from Shandong Provincial Institute for Endemic Disease Control and Prevention, and a spatial database was built. Global and local spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) were analyzed by ArcGIS 10.2 and GeoDa 1.14 softwares, respectively. Local indicators on spatial association (LISA) aggregation graph was drawn. This allowed us to investigate the spatial autocorrelation and cluster range of the distribution of Keshan disease in Shandong Province. Results:A total of 4 172 cases of Keshan disease were reported in Shandong Province with an annual incidence rate of 0 to 51.4/10 000 of the population at the township-level from 1960 to 2018. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis on the incidence of Keshan disease at the township-level showed that global Moran's I values ranged from 0.020 to 0.429 in 1962 - 1964, 1969 - 1985, 1989, 1995, 1998 - 2001 and 2004 - 2016 ( P < 0.05), thus indicating significant spatial autocorrelation overall. LISA analysis further revealed that high-high clusters of Keshan disease existed in 1960, 1962 - 1964, 1969 - 1985, 1989, 1998 - 2000 and 2002 - 2016. These clusters were predominantly distributed in three areas Zoucheng City, Pingyi County and Sishui County in the southwest of Shandong Province; Wulian County and Ju County in the southeast of Shandong Province; and Qingzhou City, Linqu County and Yishui County in the central and middle-south of Shandong Province. Conclusions:Keshan disease exhibits significant spatial autocorrelation in Shandong Province. High-high clusters are mainly located in certain townships in the southwest, southeast, central and middle-south of Shandong Province.