Construction of a nomogram prediction model for survival after radical surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To study the factors influencing survival after radical resection in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), and to construct a nomogram on survival prediction.Methods:The clinical data of 139 patients with ICC who underwent radical resection at the People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University from June 2018 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. There are 69 males and 70 females, aged (59.5±10.2) years old. These patients were divided into two groups based on a 3: 1 ratio by using the random number method: the test group ( n=104) and the validation group ( n=35). Data from the test group was used to construct a nomagram and data from the validation group was used to validate the predictive power of the nomagram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to analyse factors influencing survival on the test group patients and to construct a nomogram. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. Results:The results of the multivariate regression analysis showed that a combined hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocyte and platelet immunoinflammation (HALP) score <37.1 ( HR=1.784, 95% CI: 1.047-3.040), CA19-9 > 35U/ml ( HR=2.352, 95% CI: 1.139-4.857), poorly differentiated tumor ( HR=2.475, 95% CI: 1.237-4.953) and vascular invasion ( HR=1.897, 95% CI: 1.110-3.244) were independent risk factors that affected prognosis of patients with ICC after radical resection (all P<0.05). The AUCs of the nomogram in the test group in predicting the overall survival at 1, 2 and 3 years of patients with ICC after radical resection were 0.808, 0.853 and 0.859, respectively. There was good consistency between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observation. The predicted C-index of the total survival period of the test group was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.704-0.826), and the C-index of the validation group was 0.759 (95% CI: 0.673-0.845). Conclusion:A HALP score <37.1, CA19-9>35 U/ml, poorly differentiated tumour and vascular invasion were independent risk factors for prognosis of ICC patients after radical resection. The nomogram was established based on the above factors and showed good performance in predicting overall survival after radical resection in patients with ICC.