Establishment and validation of prognosis prediction model for patients with gallbladder cancer based on albumin-bilirubin grade / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To establish and validate a prognosis prediction model of gall bladder cancer after surgery based on the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade.Methods:The clinicopathological data of 161 patients with gallbladder cancer undergoing radical surgery in the First Hospital of Jiaxing between March 2011 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, including 44 males and 117 females, aged (65±9) years old. The patients were grouped by the levels of ALBI score. The survival data were obtained through telephone or outpatient review. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curve. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression analysis model. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to compare the prognostic value of the scoring system. A nomogram based on ALBI grade was established and its predictive performance was evaluated.Results:The 1, 3, 5 years overall survival (OS) rates of patients with gallbladder cancer were 76.7%, 52.5%, and 41.9%, respectively. The time-dependent ROC curves revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) values of ALBI grade were 0.659, 0.597 and 0.599 for 1, 2 and 3 years, showing a good prognostic performance. Multivariate regression analysis showed that poorer tumor differentiation ( HR=2.890, 95% CI 1.816-4.600, P<0.001), TNM Ⅲ/Ⅳ stage ( HR=2.832, 95% CI 1.781-4.503, P<0.001), ALBI grade 2 ( HR=1.595, 95% CI 1.017-2.500, P=0.042), and ALBI grade 3 ( HR=3.938, 95% CI 1.375-11.278, P=0.011) were independent risk factors for OS. The nomogram established with the independent risk factors such as ALBI grade showed a good predictive value for OS. The ROC curve results showed that the AUC values for 1, 3 and 5 years were 0.796, 0.806 and 0.799, respectively. The calibration plots and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) showed the clinical feasibility of this nomogram. Conclusion:The nomogram model based on ALBI grading has a good predictive value for gallbladder cancer after surgery, which could guide the prognosis and individualized treatment decision-making.