Study on the effect of temperature on the risk of hand, foot and mouth disease in Chengdu / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the effect of temperature on the risk of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) and population susceptibility. Methods The data of HFMD cases in Chengdu from January 1, 2016 to October 31, 2022 were collected, and local meteorological data during the same period were also collected. Distributional lag nonlinear models were developed. The relative risk (RR) of morbidity at different temperatures and different lags was calculated. Differences in the relative risk levels of different populations were analyzed and compared. Results A total of 263 776 cases of HFDM were reported in Chengdu during the study period. The distribution of HFMD was periodic. For the overall population, the short-term average temperature and RR showed a “U”-shaped relationship. When the lag time was 0-7 days, the cumulative RR was 1.59 (95%CI 1.18-2.14) at the average temperature of -0.5℃ and 2.16 (95%CI 1.60-2.91) at the average temperature of 34.5℃. The RR values under high and low temperatures decreased with increasing lag period. When the lag time was extended, the average temperature and RR showed an inverted “U”-shaped relationship, with higher RR at moderate temperatures and increasing as the lag period increased. The results of the subgroups showed that the RR of onset among scattered children was higher at high and low temperatures. Conclusion The risk effect of temperature on the onset of HFMD in different populations is variable and changes with the lag period, and the prevention and control measures should be adjusted in a timely and targeted manner.