Estimating the proportion of diabetes to the attributable burden of cardiovascular diseases in Iran

ABSTRACT

This study aimed at estimating the proportion of diabetes as a risk factor to the attributable burden of cardiovascular diseases in Iran. Comparative Risk Assessment methodology was used to calculating Potential Impact Fraction [PIF]. To calculate PIF, data on the prevalence of newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus [NDAI] and known diabetes mellitus [KDAI] were obtained from 3rd Iranian surveillance of risk factors of non- communicable diseases and data on corresponding measures of effect were derived from a cohort study. PIF were estimated on both theoretical minimum and feasible minimum risk. Uncertainty for the attributable burden wras estimated by Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques incorporating sources of uncertainty. According to multivariate- adjusted hazard ratios, by reducing the prevalence of Iranian women with diabetes from 10.05 percent to the feasible minimum risk level i.e. 5 percent, 6.8° o [95% uncertainty intervals 3.5- 9.8] of attributable Disability Adjusted Life Years [DALYs] to CYD are avoidable and the corresponding value for men were 3.1% [95% uncertainty intervals 1.4- 4.8]. Although data on the prevalence of diabetes and corresponding measures of associations were obtained from an updated and country- specific source, but to better priority setting, PIF should be applied to updated and revised burden of CYDs