Prognosis of very early pregnancy hormonal assay or ultrasonic examination

ABSTRACT

Single serum hCG, serum progesterone levels and ultrasonic evaluation were used to predict the pregnancy outcome in 119 women, pregnant at < 8 weeks gestation. The mean serum progesterone level was significantly [P <0.001] higher in normal pregnancy [23.3 + 6.3 ng/ml] than in abnormal gestations [9.6 + 2.2 ng/ml]. Single serum progesterone was predictive of pregnancy outcome with sensitivity of 99%, and positive predictive value of 88%. Single serum hCG was not predictive of the pregnancy outcome, while ultrasonic evaluation at < 8 weeks was poorly predictive of the pregnancy outcome. Single serum progesterone estimation at cut off level 20 ng/ml, can differentiate between normal pregnancy and abnormal gestation, and is more predictive for pregnancy outcome at < 8 weeks gestation, than the ultrasonic evaluation at the same gestational period, and so it was advisable to do this test, in pregnant women having past history of previous one or more abortion or those with previous history of ectopic pregnancy