Influencia de factores meteorológicos en la variación estacional de la mortalidad por enfermedad cardiovascular en personas de 65 y mas años en seis departamentos de la Provincia de Tucumán: Argentina (2005 - 2008) / Influence of meteorological factors variational estacional en la mortalidad de la enfermedad cardiovascular en personas for a 65 años y mas en six departments of the Province of Tucumán: Argentina (2005 - 2008)

RESUMEN

Las enfermedades por causa cardiovascular son la principal causa de muerte en el mundo y en Argentina; y se prevé que sigan siendo la principal causa de muerte. La enfermedad isquémica del corazón es ocasionada por déficit de aporte sanguíneo en el miocardio y la enfermedad cerebro vascular conlleva una disminución del flujo sanguíneo en el cerebro, generando muerte o invalidez. Junto con el cáncer, son las primeras causas de muerte en occidente. Uno de los objetivos sanitarios de la Provincia es disminuir la tasa de mortalidad por causa cardiovascular para el año 2016; y reducir las desigualdades y las brechas en salud que existan entre distintos grupos poblacionales.En el presente trabajo se trata de estimar la asociación entre la temperatura, humedad y precipitaciones con la mortalidad por Enfermedad Isquémica del Corazón (EIC) y Enfermedad Cerebro Vascular (ECV) en personas de 65 y mas años en seis departamentos de la Provincia de Tucumán. Describir la variación estacional de las muertes y detectar el valor de temperatura (mínima y máxima) que indica mayor riesgo de muerte. Para verificar la asociación entre las variables se empleó Modelos Lineales Generalizados utilizando una distribución de Poisson. Para analizar el comportamiento del efecto de una covariable bajo una perspectiva no lineal, se utilizaron los Modelos Aditivos Generalizados...

ABSTRACT

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide and in Argentina, and are expected to remain the leading cause of death. Ischemic heart disease is caused by lack of blood supply to the myocardium and brain vascular disease involves a decreased blood flow in the brain, causing death or disability. Along with cancer, are the leading causes of death in the West.One of the health objectives of the Province is reducing the rate of cardiovascular mortality by 2016 and to reduce inequalities and gaps in health that exist between different population groups. In the present study is aimed at estimating the association between temperature, humidity and rainfall with mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in people 65 and over in six departments of the Province of Tucumán. Describe the seasonal variation of deaths and detect the temperature value (minimum and maximum) indicating increased risk of death. To verify the association between variables was used Generalized Linear Models using a Poisson distribution. To analyze the behavior of the effect of a covariate in a nonlinear perspective, it was used Generalized Additive Models.Deaths from IHD and CVD, with a seasonal pattern, by an increase in winter were associated with low temperatures and sudden temperature changes. The effect of minimum temperature, with lagged of a week, is wich better explained deaths, increasing the risk by 4% with every degree the temperature drops in the case of EIC and 2% in CVD. When greater temperature difference increased one degree, the risk increased 3% in the same week and up to 5% in the next week, for mortality from IHD; and 2% in the same week and 1% in the next week to CVD. These findings may help to take precautions in older people with higher risk of suffering IHD and CVD.